Happy Thursday!

Grab your coffee, because today's edition is a fertilizer sandwich with a farmland side dish. 🌾

The short version: input costs aren't easing up any time soon, one of the world's biggest fertilizer makers just posted a rough quarter, and U.S. land values keep climbing anyway.

Let's get into it.

What happened. Farm Progress talked to Ed Thomas, VP of government affairs at The Fertilizer Institute, and the outlook isn't pretty.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens for good, it could take a year and a half to two years for the global fertilizer market to actually stabilize.

Why it happened. Two wars, one supply chain. The Russia-Ukraine conflict already knocked out key production facilities.

Then this year's U.S.-Israel military action against Iran shut down shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE and Qatar, the countries that move roughly a quarter of the world's ammonia trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sulfur is the sneaky villain here.

It's the key ingredient in the sulfuric acid used to make phosphate fertilizer, and about half the world's sulfur exports come out of the Middle East.

Sulfur that used to trade for $100 to $200 a tonne is now pushing $1,300 a tonne.

Add in export restrictions from China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt and Kazakhstan, plus 31 ammonia plants shuttered by the Iran conflict and another 39 damaged by drone strikes in Russia, and you've got a supply crunch with no quick fix.

What it means for the farm gate. Phosphate is the real long-term headache. U.S. domestic phosphate production has dropped about 100,000 short tons a year since 2019, not because mines are producing less rock, but because the rock quality has declined.

That means more reliance on imports right when imports are the problem.

There's a silver lining: Washington recently suspended countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, which should help availability.

But experts are telling farmers to soil-test, apply phosphate only where it pays, and buy in smaller batches rather than betting on a price dip.

👉 Read the full story

If you want proof the fertilizer market is genuinely strained, look no further than Mosaic's latest earnings.

The fertilizer giant posted second quarter revenue of $2.8 billion, missing Wall Street's $3.05 billion estimate, and adjusted earnings of $0.13 a share versus the $0.16 expected.

The culprit wasn't weak demand.

It was sulfur.

Rising sulfur costs and availability problems forced Mosaic to curtail phosphate production, which meant an operating loss for the quarter even with stronger phosphate and potash prices working in the company's favour.

Why it matters for the Prairies: Canada doesn't produce phosphate fertilizer at all, so every tonne applied here comes from somewhere else, mostly the U.S.

When a major supplier like Mosaic is cutting production because it can't get enough sulfur, that tightness flows straight through to what shows up at your local retailer this fall and next spring.

Mosaic still expects global phosphate production to fall 20 to 30 million tonnes below last year's level.

That's not a company problem, that's a market problem, and it lines up exactly with what The Fertilizer Institute is warning about above.

👉 Read the full story

Here's a plot twist.

Despite tighter crop margins, higher interest costs and now a fertilizer bill that won't quit, U.S. farmland values just hit another record high.

USDA's newly released Land Values 2026 Summary shows average farm real estate reached $4,500 an acre, up 3.4 percent from last year. Cropland averaged $6,020 an acre, topping $6,000 for the first time ever. Pasture climbed to $2,000 an acre.

It's the sixth straight year of gains, though the pace is slowing. This run has now lifted farm real estate values nearly 79 percent since 2012.

Why it matters for your operation. Higher land values are a double-edged plow.

They strengthen your balance sheet and your borrowing power if you already own ground.

But they also make it that much tougher to expand, and brutal for anyone trying to get into farming for the first time.

Worth keeping an eye on whether Canadian farmland follows the same pattern when provincial numbers roll in later this year.

👉 Read the full story

That's the bin for today.

Fertilizer's not getting cheaper soon, one of the biggest suppliers just had a rough go of it, and land is somehow still worth more than ever.

Prairie ag never runs out of plot twists.

Catch you tomorrow.

Keep your boots dry and your bins full. 🌾