Key takeaways
Cenovus will stop operations at its Lloydminster ethanol plant on Dec. 15, 2026, following an economic review of the facility.
The plant bought about 350,000 tonnes of grain a year from farmers, including off-grade wheat, rye and triticale.
APAS vice-president Jeremy Welter expects many producers within roughly 150 kilometres to be affected and says the loss of buyer competition is concerning.
Source: The Western Producer
Happy Thursday! Grab your coffee and hold it with both hands, because today's theme is subtraction.
Ottawa announced Wednesday that regulators must now remove $2 of red tape for every $1 they add. How generous.
Out here, the Prairies are running their own two-for-one special, and nobody signed up for it: one ethanol plant, minus.
One feed wheat buyer, minus.
And down in southern Saskatchewan, somebody's been subtracting grain straight out of a neighbour's hoppers.
Let's do the math nobody wanted to do.
🌾 The Big Bin: Lloydminster's ethanol plant pulls the plug
What happened
Cenovus will stop operations at its Lloydminster ethanol plant on Dec. 15, following what the company calls "an economic review." That's corporate for: we ran the numbers, and the numbers ran away.
The plant bought about 350,000 tonnes of grain a year from farmers, mostly wheat that missed milling grade, and lately rye and triticale too.
Staff are being shuffled into other roles, and the facility will be "maintained" while Cenovus mulls future uses. So: a 130-million-litre paperweight with a very good security guard.
The sister plant at Minnedosa, Man., stays open.
Why it happened
Cenovus isn't saying much beyond "economic review." The industry backdrop is louder: Canadian ethanol was left out of the federal Biofuel Production Incentive, and U.S. ethanol, made with the help of a U.S. production credit, gets treated the same as homegrown product under the Clean Fuel Regulations. Imported ethanol is soaking up the demand growth.
Our read, not Cenovus's: when one runner gets a tailwind and the other gets a participation ribbon, nobody should act shocked at the finish line.
What it means for the farm gate
Growers within roughly 150 km lose a reliable home for feed wheat. Paynton's Vicki Dutton said the plant "played a major role" in northwest planting decisions, in a country where a No. 1 wheat is hard to come by.
The sneaky loss is competition. APAS VP Jeremy Welter points out other buyers had to match Cenovus. A buyer you never even sold to still kept everybody else honest. Starting Dec. 16, they don't have to be.
Inference, not reported: anyone who grew soft white wheat, rye or triticale with Lloydminster in mind should be pencilling in a different 2027 rotation, or a much longer haul.
Welter's hoping another operator picks the plant up rather than letting it sit as a stranded asset. Ottawa, if you're looking for something to add for once, there's an opening.
📎 Meanwhile in Ottawa: the two-for-one
Treasury Board unveiled a new Cabinet Directive on Regulatory Competitiveness and Red Tape Reduction on Oct. 21. Regulators must now cut $2 in burden for every $1 of new burden, up from the old one-for-one rule.
It also promises competitiveness reviews, regular rule check-ups and more reliance on recognized national and international standards.
So what: a farm answers to transport, food safety, environment, traceability, labour and tax rules all at once. CFIB's Dan Kelly cheered, but warned small businesses shouldn't end up paying for access to standards or chasing unnecessary certifications. Translation: please don't replace one form with a pricey binder explaining a different form.
Success, Kelly says, gets measured in fewer forms. We'll believe it when the mailbox gets lighter.
🚜 Tractor Tech and Trends: Bayer builds, clubroot doesn't wait
Bayer breaks ground in Winnipeg
Bayer Crop Science broke ground Oct. 16 on a C$50 million, 60,000-square-foot canola innovation centre in Winnipeg, with Manitoba Ag Minister Ron Kostyshyn on ceremonial shovel duty.
The focus: canola, camelina and winter canola, covering trait integration, yield-trial seed processing and seed quality, plus research into heat and moisture stress for yield stability.
It's due to be operational by the end of 2028, alongside Bayer's Smartpark early-breeding site, while Carman stays a multi-crop nursery.
So what: the payoff is varieties that hold up in a lousy year, which, judging by 2026, is just called "a year."
Clubroot shows up in Manitoba with an Alberta accent
Manitoba confirmed six new canola clubroot cases in 2026, the most since 2018: Lorne and Louise (one each), Pembina and Swan River West (two each). A seventh turned up in mustard grown as a potato biofumigant in the RM of Cornwallis.
The symptoms were the alarming part: heavy galling, wilting and early plant death, which provincial pathologist Simon Huang said looks more typical of Alberta.
The affected fields were seeded to first-generation clubroot-resistant varieties. Huang says it's premature to call resistance broken; pathotype results land in early 2027.
So what: a two- to three-year canola break (three where symptoms show up), clean equipment, and Manitoba Canola Growers' free soil test, one sample per field. Bayer's shiny new centre opens in 2028. Clubroot did not RSVP to the ribbon cutting.
🧪 The input desk: fertilizer isn't getting off the hook
StoneX's Josh Linville says even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, the fertilizer mess runs into spring 2027. Anhydrous inventories started July "about as low as we can remember," and one manufacturer skipped summer fill entirely.
Phosphate is the scary one. Mosaic's Ben Pratt pegs world demand around 75 million tons, with production tracking near 45 million because makers can't get sulfur. Roughly half the world's sulfur moves through Hormuz.
The Prairie hook: Linville figures Canada supplies about 90% of U.S. potash imports. "We're married to each other," he says. Somebody remind Washington the in-laws live in Saskatchewan.
⛽ Washington writes an $8 billion diesel cheque (not to you)
The USDA's new Harvest Fuel Relief Program will send US$8 billion in one-time payments to American farmers to offset harvest diesel costs, with rates for Title 1 crops expected in November.
So what: Prairie farmers burn diesel in the same global squeeze and sell into the same export markets as the folks getting the cheque. None of today's sources point to a Canadian equivalent. Ottawa is busy subtracting red tape; adding a cheque is apparently a different department.
🐮 The Grazing Pen: Pastures, preg checks and a hopper whodunit
Manitoba cattle make the most of a good fall
Manitoba's harvest hit 86% for the week ending Oct. 20, with the northwest (77%) and southwest (78%) dragging.
On the livestock side, some cow-calf pairs are still on grass in the northwest, spring calves are heading to market, and there's "a lot of preg checking" going on. Pens are drying out, manure is going down ahead of homecoming, corn silage is wrapping up and some late alfalfa is still getting baled.
So what: provincial specialist James Frey expects plenty of feed this winter, and stockpiled or rotationally grazed pastures still have grass on them. In 2026, "plenty" is a word we'll happily take.
🌡️ El Niño goes big
The World Meteorological Organization's new outlook has central Pacific temperatures running about 3.8 C above normal from November to January, peaking around December. The WMO's chief said they've never recorded 3.8; past monster events topped out near 3.
The Co-operator notes it may bring a warm but dry winter to Western Canada.
Inference, not reported: mild and open could stretch late-season grazing and trim winter feeding days. Dry means thin snowpack and dugouts that start spring thirsty. Bank the good fall; don't bank the winter.
🚔 Somebody's subtracting grain in southern Sask
Assiniboia RCMP want help identifying two males linked to grain hopper tampering in the RM of Lake of the Rivers on Aug. 14 and 15. Police photos show at least four hoppers with grain piled on the ground underneath.
Video went out Oct. 20: one in jeans and a grey shirt, the other in jeans, a green shirt and a hat. That narrows it down to roughly every guy at the co-op on a Saturday morning.
Tips go to 310-RCMP or Saskatchewan Crime Stoppers at 1-800-222-TIPS (8477). Possible charges include trespassing, mischief and criminal negligence, and provincial trespass fines run up to $5,000, or $25,000 for repeat offenders.
📊 Stat of the Day: 350,000

350,000 tonnes: the grain Cenovus's Lloydminster ethanol plant bought from farmers every year. Come Dec. 16, that's 350,000 tonnes looking for a new address. (Source: The Western Producer)
👋 The Sign-off
So that's Thursday's ledger. Ottawa takes away two dollars of red tape for every one it adds. The Prairies take away one ethanol plant, one feed wheat buyer and at least four hoppers' worth of somebody's grain, then toss in some Alberta-grade clubroot for free.
Ottawa's two-for-one is the only subtraction this week anybody actually asked for. Check your canola roots, lock your hopper slides, and if two guys in jeans offer to "help unload," politely decline.
Stay sharp out there,
The Grain Bug Crew 🐞

