Happy Tuesday!

Grab your coffee, because today's edition is basically one long budget headache wrapped in a bow. 🎀

Fuel and fertilizer costs might not be coming back down anytime soon; there's a "super" El Niño brewing on top of it, and now your desiccant is joining the party too.

Let's get into it.

What happened: Farm Credit Canada is warning that elevated shipping and fuel costs could stick around clear through 2027 unless the U.S.-Iran peace deal actually holds.

And just to pile on, JPMorgan dropped its own warning this week: a brewing "super" El Niño stacking on top of the Iran war's energy shock could push global food inflation up by as much as 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points, with the pain landing hardest in the first half of 2027.

Why it happened: Since the Iran war kicked off back in February, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept fuel, fertilizer, and ocean freight costs elevated worldwide.

A tentative U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding in June briefly cooled things off, but by early July, reports had Trump calling the deal "over," and the strait is still running at a fraction of normal traffic.

Layer on top of that: JPMorgan pegs the odds of a "very strong" or "super" El Niño forming this year at 81 percent, with a 97 percent chance it hangs around into 2027.

What it means for the farm gate: If you're pencilling in fuel, fertilizer, and freight for 2027 right now, budget like the current sticker shock is the new normal, not a temporary blip.

"Peace deal signed" doesn't automatically mean "costs back to normal" — the ships, the plants, and now the weather all have to cooperate too.

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Crop input dealers at Ag in Motion had a blunt message this week: lock up your diquat now, because there isn't nearly enough to go around this year.